How the Republican Party Will End Soon

I don't like making predictions like this, because such predictions are almost always wrong. So here goes: The Republican Party as it now exists will end within a decade because of the gay marriage issue. No, not the fiscal issues and tactics debated with reference to the Tea Party. And not the so-called isolationism of Rand Paul and his libertarian-leaning supporters or immigration reform proposals. Those splits might be costly to Republicans, but both sides in each of those disputes can live with each other.

So what's that "as it now exists" qualifier? By that I mean, as a national party that can win and hold power in either elected branch of government. As a result of disagreement regarding gay marriage, there is almost certain to be a major split that will doom the party in elections for the foreseeable future.

This week there is a story about a public dispute between Dick Cheney's two daughters on the issue. I happen to think that Liz Cheney is only (probably unsuccessfully) pandering to Wyoming voters, but this conflict nicely illustrates a larger one among Republicans. On the one hand, a growing majority of, not only U.S. voters, but soon of Republicans as well, has no problem with homosexuality or its legal implications. Within the party elite, even anti-tax zealot Grover Norquist has joined the GOProud faction, while Wall Street Journal types are at least muted on the issue.

But hardcore social conservatives (the Religious Right, as they were once known), will not change. Giving in on gay marriage would violate the most central beliefs of Christian conservatives in particular, so it's not going to happen. For most Evangelicals, the inerrant and infallible words of the Bible are read as calling any and all homosexual actions sinful with no exceptions. For most conservative Catholics, the longstanding moral teaching of the Catholic Church adds weight to the same biblical passages. In both cases, gay marriage runs counter to the highest moral authority recognized by these groups, who probably make up at least half of the Republican Party's voter base.

As Republican elites are increasingly favorable to gay marriage and Republican politicians change their positions to appeal to a drastically-changed electorate, the social conservative element of the Republican base will have hard choices to make. In all likelihood, the likes of Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich will either start a new "true conservative" party or they will engage in unrestrained political warfare against Republican elites and politicians from within the party. There doesn't seem to be any way around that conclusion. As much as social conservatives are usually also fiscal conservatives, their root motivation is to "serve God rather than man."

To me, this will be a welcome development, as I oppose both the close association of Christianity with the nation-state and the two-party system. For the Democratic Party, it will probably be an incredible windfall, especially if (as is widely predicted) they become competitive in Texas. But for Republicans the soul-searching of 2008 and 2012 will only intensify over the next decade or two.